Remember
a few hours ago, when I said that the collapse of the Musharraf regime in Pakistan scared me more than just about any other geopolitical shakeup I could imagine? Well, a blog post at
the New Republic's Plank directed me to a ripening (from mid-March) story from the
Times that suggests I may have fallen for
old school disinformation.
This is actually quite possible, insofar as I'm a notorious idiot.
The long, reassuring stretch reads like this:
The fear within Washington that Islamic extremism has become a dominant force in Pakistan has been stoked in part by Mr. Musharraf himself. Some analysts say his warnings are used to maintain a steady flow of American aid and keep at bay demands from Washington for democratic reforms. He often invokes the dangers of Islamic radicalism when meeting American officials in Washington and Islamabad, and his narrow escape in two assassination attempts is frequently cited by President Bush as evidence of his tenuous grip on power.
While the Islamists would surely take power in any way possible, an examination of polling data and recent election results — however suspect in a less than democratic country — provides little evidence that Islamists have enough support to take over the country. If anything, they would likely control only select areas.
The last time Pakistan went to the polls in 2002, religious political parties received just 11 percent of the vote, compared with more than 28 percent won by the secular party led by Benazir Bhutto, the former prime minister.
And that election may have even been a high-water mark for the Islamists, who were capitalizing on surging anti-American sentiment after the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. Even though the Iraq war has also inflamed anti-Western attitudes, these sentiments do not seem to have translated into electoral gains for Islamist parties.
Islamist politicians received a drubbing in local elections in 2005, gaining less support than expected in their power base in the tribal areas. In September, a poll by the International Republican Institute, a respected organization affiliated with the Republican Party that helps build democratic institutions in foreign countries, found that just 5.2 percent of respondents would vote for the main religious party, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, in national parliamentary elections.
Although the poll found that this party was the most popular in Baluchistan, the southwestern province where Taliban support is strong, Islamist leaders lagged far behind both Mr. Musharraf and Ms. Bhutto, as well as another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif. It is also thought to be unlikely that a successful attempt on Mr. Musharraf’s life would mean wholesale changes to the power structure of Pakistani politics.
For decades, the military has been the most dominant institution in Pakistan. If Mr. Musharraf were to fall to an assassin’s bullet, American diplomatic and intelligence officials say, it is unlikely that there would be mass uprisings in Lahore and Karachi, or that a religious leader in the Taliban mold would rise to power.
“I am not particularly worried about an extremist government coming to power and getting hold of nuclear weapons,” said Robert Richer, who was associate director of operations in 2004 and 2005 for the Central Intelligence Agency. “If something happened to Musharraf tomorrow, another general would step in.”
Based on the succession plan, the vice chief of the army, Gen. Ahsan Saleem Hyat, would take over as the leader of the army and Mohammedmian Soomro, an ex-banker, would become president.
General Hyat, who is secular like Mr. Musharraf, would hold the real power.
Now, there are no guarantees, and when we're talking about nuclear powers nobody should be in too much of a hurry for radical change. Still, for anyone who worried that we were one bad day in the Asian subcontinent from waking up in a Road Warrior movie . . . well, maybe you can relax a little, after all.
. . .
Ha! Just kidding! Worry about
Iran, instead!
Inspectors for the International Atomic Energy Agency have concluded that Iran appears to have solved most of its technological problems and is now beginning to enrich uranium on a far larger scale than before, according to the agency’s top officials.
The findings may change the calculus of diplomacy in Europe and in Washington, which aimed to force a suspension of Iran’s enrichment activities in large part to prevent it from learning how to produce weapons-grade material.
In a short-notice inspection of Iran’s operations in the main nuclear facility at Natanz on Sunday, conducted in advance of a report to the United Nations Security Council due early next week, the inspectors found that Iranian engineers were already using roughly 1,300 centrifuges and were producing fuel suitable for nuclear reactors, according to diplomats and nuclear experts here.
Until recently, the Iranians were having difficulty keeping the delicate centrifuges spinning at the tremendous speeds necessary to make nuclear fuel and were often running them empty or not at all.
Now, those roadblocks appear to have been surmounted. “We believe they pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich,” said Mohammed ElBaradei, the director general of the energy agency, who clashed with the Bush administration four years ago when he declared that there was no evidence that Iraq had resumed its nuclear program. “From now on, it is simply a question of perfecting that knowledge. People will not like to hear it, but that’s a fact.”
These guys really make it hard for those of us who argue against bombing junkets. The Israelis are going to freak, and I can't really blame them.
Not to say that I think Iran would
use its nukes. The people who run the place are zealots, but they're not unconcerned with their own survival; the only war they've directly involved themselves in since Ayatollah Khomeini brought his tyranny to town was started by Saddam Hussein. They back Hezbollah - and all that that entails - but they've always stayed well inside all the lines that guarantee their survival. They're bad, not crazy.
That said, once you bring nukes into the picture, it becomes way too easy to imagine stupid mistakes leading to days worse than September 11 - and, again, the guys that run Iran really aren't very good at it to begin with. I still believe
firmly that military action is a bad idea; we can't permanently destroy their weapons-making capacity (or even be sure we know where it all is), but we
can kill a lot of people, and go a long way toward convincing the citizenry en masse that the craziest elements of their government are the only ones who'll stand up to the Western menace.
What I hope to see, instead, is some hardcore pushing on Russia and China to stop giving Iran diplomatic cover through all this. I was down on the election of Mr. Sarkozy, but if by some chance he wants to help sway Europe toward a firm stance on this, he'll go a long way toward making me feel that I've been unfair.